Fasten Your Seat Belt: 2025 Will Be a Turbulent Year
There are various yardsticks used to estimate the direction of the stock market for a given year based on the performance...
The Connection Between Tariffs and Immigration
As this paper is being written prior to the installation of the new administration, it was decided to focus on two aspects...
2025 Fearless Forecast: Rock and Roll Time
We are at this writing at record levels for most of the stock indexes. The line of greatest credibility for the forecasting...
Winter is Coming to the Stock Market Are You Prepared?
At this writing Donald Trump has won the election and control of the Senate is now in republican hands. The House is still...
From a Financial Point of View: Does it Really Matter Who Gets Elected President?
As we enter the final stretch for the presidential elections in November, all manner of datais being thrown around trying...
A Recession is Coming: Is Your Portfolio Ready?
Last week the stock of Dollar General declined over 25 percent in one day. The reason was reported to be earnings that were...
The Chimera of Diversification: The Standard and Poors 500 Index Fund
Investing in 500 stocks sounds like diversification. If one goes down, the other 499 perseveres. This is not exactly the...
How Buildings Fall Down: The Coming Debacle in Commercial Real Estate
Last May, Starwood Investors placed a limit on the monthly withdrawals from its private commercial real estate funds it...
What Warren Buffett Really Said: Taxes are Going Up
The annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway has been dubbed the “Woodstock of Capitalism”. People flock from all over the...
What Levittown Can Teach Us About Inflation and How to Address It
In 1949 there was, like today, a shortage of affordable housing. Soldiers were returning from abroad eager to start...
When Higher for Longer Becomes Higher Forever: Interest Rates Going Forward
At its most basic, interest rates reflect supply and demand. Supply comes from the amount of money in circulation and...
When Prices Reach a High Nobody Rings a Bell: The Last Days of Bitcoins
March 5, 2024, witnessed a remarkable sight. Bitcoins set an all-time high and then plunged tenpercent in the same day....
Don’t Eat, Don’t Drive, Live out of your Car. The Idiocy of “Core” CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was first devised in 1914 to tell the government how much faster prices were rising in...
How Long Can Valuations Stay High? What History Tells Us
My first employment out of graduate school at Vanderbilt was with the New Yorkfirm of Kidder, Peabody & Company. The...
What’s in Store for ’24? The Challenge of Investment Forecasting
According to the American Institute of Individual Investors (AAII), investors were the mostpessimistic in the last twelve...
How “Public/Private Cooperation” Works in China:Bamboo Capitalism
In western societies, the concept of government helping the private sector is done infrequently.Except for perhaps support...