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Perspectives
How Buildings Fall Down: The Coming Debacle in Commercial Real Estate
Last May, Starwood Investors placed a limit on the monthly withdrawals from its private commercial real estate funds it manages. It did so to avoid having to sell assets at a loss to meet redemptions. Starwood manages about $10 billion in assets in what is estimated...
What Warren Buffett Really Said: Taxes are Going Up
The annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway has been dubbed the “Woodstock of Capitalism”. People flock from all over the world to attend the event, held on the first Saturday in May in Buffet’s hometown of Omaha, Nebraska. It is covered live by CNBC, the one...
What Levittown Can Teach Us About Inflation and How to Address It
In 1949 there was, like today, a shortage of affordable housing. Soldiers were returning from abroad eager to start families, but there was little to no housing available. This was due to the imbalance of supply and demand which led to a strong undercurrent of...
When Higher for Longer Becomes Higher Forever: Interest Rates Going Forward
At its most basic, interest rates reflect supply and demand. Supply comes from the amount of money in circulation and demand from the various parties who, for their own reasons, desire to borrow. In a free market the two sides agree upon a given cost for money, called...
When Prices Reach a High Nobody Rings a Bell: The Last Days of Bitcoins
March 5, 2024, witnessed a remarkable sight. Bitcoins set an all-time high and then plunged tenpercent in the same day. Bitcoin prices did stabilize by the end of the day and saw some recovery fromthe lows. Their movement also impacted parts of the stock market, with...
Don’t Eat, Don’t Drive, Live out of your Car. The Idiocy of “Core” CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was first devised in 1914 to tell the government how much faster prices were rising in coastal towns where warships were being built. Theidea was that the government would add to the wages of defense workers in such localitieswhere...
How Long Can Valuations Stay High? What History Tells Us
My first employment out of graduate school at Vanderbilt was with the New Yorkfirm of Kidder, Peabody & Company. The firm brought people in to discuss variouspertinent topics to the training class. For economics we were lectured by a Professor Gamerov. He posed...
What’s in Store for ’24? The Challenge of Investment Forecasting
According to the American Institute of Individual Investors (AAII), investors were the mostpessimistic in the last twelve months almost one year ago when the weekly index of pessimism aboutthe future reached 52.3%. It is 19.6% now. This is the lowest reading on...
How “Public/Private Cooperation” Works in China:Bamboo Capitalism
In western societies, the concept of government helping the private sector is done infrequently.Except for perhaps support for original research, governments do not in general support specific firmsor industries outside of wartime. While there have been tax incentives...