Perspectives
How Long Can Valuations Stay High? What History Tells Us
My first employment out of graduate school at Vanderbilt was with the New Yorkfirm of Kidder, Peabody & Company. The firm brought people in to discuss variouspertinent topics to the training class. For economics we were lectured by a Professor Gamerov. He posed...
What’s in Store for ’24? The Challenge of Investment Forecasting
According to the American Institute of Individual Investors (AAII), investors were the mostpessimistic in the last twelve months almost one year ago when the weekly index of pessimism aboutthe future reached 52.3%. It is 19.6% now. This is the lowest reading on...
How “Public/Private Cooperation” Works in China:Bamboo Capitalism
In western societies, the concept of government helping the private sector is done infrequently.Except for perhaps support for original research, governments do not in general support specific firmsor industries outside of wartime. While there have been tax incentives...
One Sure Result from Political Turmoil: Higher Interest Rates
The recent dismissal of Kevin McCarthy, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, by members of his own party has a certain thespian quality to it. Sort of like watching a modern adaptation of Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar. It is not every day that a...
Most Companies Can Cope With Higher Interest Rates. Can the Stock Market?
As the concept of “higher-for-longer” interest rates sink in, there are three areas of concern:consumers, businesses, and the stock market. Each segment responds differently. Consumers areexpected to, in time, curtail spending in favor of saving now that interest...
Ever Landed in a Glider? A “Soft Landing” is Not What you Expect
Wall Street jargon has now embraced aeronautics. Pundits have been busy talkingup how The Federal Reserve will “glide the economy to a soft landing”. In this analogy,the earlier stimulus spending by the government is the propulsion. The Fed’s applyinginterest rates is...
The Untracked Stimulus Program: Spending By Those Over 65
Economists keep scratching their collective heads about the ongoing strength of the economy. With the COVID stimulus funds close to spent and the Federal Budget deficit flattening out the question is: where does the economy come up with the ability to grow at a rate...
When Human Nature Meets Artificial Intelligence: How Stock Market Fads Begin—And End
Speculators who treat the stock market as a casino love concepts. They are new, unburdened by history, can be projected far into the future, and thus can justify almost any stock price. For those who foist stock ideas on an unsuspecting public, it is a rich vein to...
I Hear Banjo Music: Drifting Towards A Debt Crisis
Sometime in the next 15-45 days, the United States government is going to run out of credit. This is the result of a law, passed in 1917, that placed a limit on what the country can borrow as described by law. The United States is the only developed country in the...