Perspectives
Perception Vs. Reality. Why Bonds Are Not A Safe Haven
Advocates of formulaic investing along the lines of 60 percent stocks, 40 percent bonds are not doing so well these days. Year to date, bond indexes are down about 13 percent. This is the second consecutive year of negative returns from fixed income. While this may be...
What Happens To Stocks When Interest Rates Rise? A Historical Pattern Gives Us A Clue
Like today, in 1979 the perception was that inflation was out of control. The hapless administration of G. William Miller at the Federal Reserve had left its reputation for control of the purchasing power of the US Dollar in tatters. Every time...
Oil Refinery Economics: How A Shortage Of Refineries Cause An Increase In Gas Prices
Economics 101 - Law of Supply and Demand: legislating oil refineries decreases supply With the exception of a small refinery launched in North Dakota in 2014, no new oil refineries have been built in the United States since 1976. In 1972, Richard Nixon...
Market Decline Accelerates: How To Find The Bottom
At this writing, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is down 16.8 percent year-to-date. Within this fact, several stocks have gone down less and some have gone down a great deal more. For those who would rather invest in the future than the present, an analysis...
What Happens When Markets Fluctuate: Maintaining Balance While Others Are Not
After the cascading decline of year-to-date, the market indexes are down 10 percent in terms of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages, 13 percent for the Standard & Poor’s 500, and 23 percent for the NASDAQ Over-the-Counter Market. Relatively recent market...
1938 Redux: Who Will Gain And Lose From Ukraine
Someone once wrote, “History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” The current Russian invasion of Ukraine has been compared to the 1938 German invasion of Czechoslovakia. Like Nazi Germany, Russia made a series of escalating demands on Ukraine and...
Ukraine, Russian, And The End Of Free Trade
As this is written, the invasion of Ukraine continues to evolve. While talks are scheduled, there is little hope of a diplomatic solution. A product of the Ukraine war waged by Russia is an international condemnation of the conduct of the Russian government in...
So Long 60/40: How Circumstances Can Get In The Way Of Recipe Investing
For at least 60 years, it has been an article of faith to invest one’s assets along the lines of 60 percent stocks, 40 percent bonds. This formula was originally coined by the Ford Foundation; they advocated the allocation to endowments and large charities who...
Forecasting 2022: The Road Steepens
Warren Barnett 30 December 2021 The New Year will bring all sorts of changes. A stock market floating on cheap money and excess funds will learn to float with less or capsize in the process. Many speculative enterprises like cryptocurrencies, electric...