How Long Can Valuations Stay High? What History Tells Us

My first employment out of graduate school at Vanderbilt was with the New Yorkfirm of Kidder, Peabody & Company. The firm brought people in to discuss variouspertinent topics to the training class. For economics we were lectured by a Professor Gamerov. He posed...

What’s in Store for ’24? The Challenge of Investment Forecasting

According to the American Institute of Individual Investors (AAII), investors were the mostpessimistic in the last twelve months almost one year ago when the weekly index of pessimism aboutthe future reached 52.3%. It is 19.6% now. This is the lowest reading on...

How “Public/Private Cooperation” Works in China:Bamboo Capitalism

In western societies, the concept of government helping the private sector is done infrequently.Except for perhaps support for original research, governments do not in general support specific firmsor industries outside of wartime. While there have been tax incentives...

One Sure Result from Political Turmoil: Higher Interest Rates

The recent dismissal of Kevin McCarthy, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, by members of his own party has a certain thespian quality to it. Sort of like watching a modern adaptation of Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar. It is not every day that a...

Ever Landed in a Glider? A “Soft Landing” is Not What you Expect

Wall Street jargon has now embraced aeronautics. Pundits have been busy talkingup how The Federal Reserve will “glide the economy to a soft landing”. In this analogy,the earlier stimulus spending by the government is the propulsion. The Fed’s applyinginterest rates is...

The Untracked Stimulus Program: Spending By Those Over 65

Economists keep scratching their collective heads about the ongoing strength of the economy. With the COVID stimulus funds close to spent and the Federal Budget deficit flattening out the question is: where does the economy come up with the ability to grow at a rate...

I Hear Banjo Music: Drifting Towards A Debt Crisis

Sometime in the next 15-45 days, the United States government is going to run out of credit. This is the result of a law, passed in 1917, that placed a limit on what the country can borrow as described by law. The United States is the only developed country in the...

The “Mini-Me” Market Rally: 2011-21 Redux

Many index investors, after the drubbing taken in 2022, have looked at their statements for the first quarter of 2023 with some relief. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is up seven percent this quarter. However, the average stock is up less than one percent. This...

How A Banking Panic Differs From A Banking Crisis

The closing of three financial institutions in the past week has sent a sense of crisis through the financial world. Deposits are insured at FDIC institutions up to $250,000. Some accounts are many times this number. Venture capitalists (VCs) typically deposit in the...

To Reduce Inflation And Not Sink The Economy: Increase The Work Force

It should be obvious by now to everyone that increasing interest rates to slow the economy is not resulting in lower inflation. It is obvious to the Federal Reserve, who nevertheless continues to increase rates to kill the patient to make the procedure successful. The...